Going into this weekend, the temperatures are again forecasted to drop into the low 30s/upper 20s across the entire state (figures 1 & 2). After the freeze event early last week, we observed significant damage in all of our fruit trees. Below are the low temperatures and hours below 32 & 28 °F for multiple counties acorss the state from March 17th and 18th. 

Table 1: Morning Low Temperatures, Hours Below 32 & 28 °F, and Average Wind Speed for March 17th & 18th for Hardin, Fayette, LaRue, Breathitt, and Boone Counties.

Apples at tight cluster to half-inch green still showed some survival, but apples at pink/open cluster were completely lost, and pears were nearly a total loss in sampled buds (table 2). Stone fruit were hit hardest overall, with only ‘Contender’ and ‘July Prince’ retaining moderate survival, while most cultivars at pink to full bloom had very low live bud counts (table 3). These observations are a strong reminder that freeze risk rises quickly with advancing bud stage, and bloom-stage crops were especially vulnerable in this event. 

The tables below show the bud stages for both pome and stone fruit. At each stage, the 10% or 90% critical damage temperatures are listed under each stage for each crop. 

Looking at Saturday and Sunday, the UK Ag Weather Center predicts temperatures as low as 28 °F in some parts of Kentucky on Saturday, March 28^th and temperatures as low as 27 °F in some parts of Kentucky on Sunday, March 29^th (figures 1 & 2). With advancing bloom stages, it’s important to remember that if a small number of buds survive, we can still produce fruit for the year. Please check your local forecast for Saturday and Sunday night and evaluate risk based on the most advanced bud stages in your orchard.

Alongside checking the temperature forecast and your bud stages, there are some variables to keep in mind when using freeze protection methods. It’s important to understand the difference between a calm, clear radiative freeze and a windy advective freeze. Radiative freezes can often be managed with active frost protection methods, but advective freezes are much more difficult to control and are often beyond the reach of those same tools. Some protection methods, including overhead sprinklers, can work well under the right conditions. But if wind is too strong, coverage is poor, or the system cannot apply enough water, sprinklers can increase injury instead of preventing it. 

It is also important to remember that damage will not be the same across all crops or all sites. Some crops and varieties at advanced bloom or fruit set may see severe injury at these temperatures, while others may escape with little to no damage depending on phenology, variety, and site. Low areas, frost pockets, and more advanced plantings are often at much greater risk than higher, better-aired sites or blocks that are less developed. 

The key message for growers right now is simple: do not make decisions based on temperature alone. Watch wind, sky conditions, crop stage, and site conditions closely. In freeze events, doing something is not always better than doing nothing — the wrong response can cost more than the freeze itself. 

For commercial growers with any questions or concerns please reach out to Brent Arnoldussen, Elayna Stirn, or reach out to us through our social media. For home growers with questions or concerns, please reach out to your county agent.

(3/27/2026) 

Elayna Stirn, Brent Arnoldussen